Assessing MMR Vaccination Strategies in Texas: A Scenario-Based Modeling Study of Measles Outbreaks

Measles, once common in the U.S., declined sharply after the MMR vaccine’s adoption in 1971 and was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000. Measles has reemerged due to waning vaccination coverage and case importation and more than 200 cases reported in the past few months in West Texas. We used a calibrated mathematical model and stochastic simulations to assess the impact of vaccination on the expected number of cases. Raising vaccination coverage by 5% could prevent 133 cases (95% CI: 97–169), while a 5% reduction may result in 190 additional cases (95% CI: 133–273) in Gaines County. These findings highlight the critical need for robust vaccination strategies to mitigate measles outbreak risks.