Excess respiratory, circulatory, neoplasm and other mortality rates during the Covid-19 pandemic in the EU and their implications

Recently data has become available on excess mortality rates due to specific causes during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using the Eurostat database from 2016 to 2021, deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2020-2021 and all deaths, as well as deaths due to specific causes including diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems, neoplasms and transport accidents, were tabulated for 33 European countries. From the Our World in Data database, vaccination rates, economic, health, demographic and government response stringency index variables were also tabulated. Among the key findings were using standardised rates: (1) With the exception of Central and Eastern European countries, in almost all countries, excess mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory, respiratory systems and neoplasms were negative. Ireland had the lowest excess respiratory rates both years; (2) Significantly positive excess mortality rates appeared in Croatia, Cyprus, Malta and Turkey and were attributed to neoplasms, diabetes, dementia and ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality, respectively. Indications are that these were exacerbated by public health measures (apart from Turkey); (3) In regression analyses the human development index and vaccination rates were important explanations for all excess death rates; (4) Statistically significant positive or negative excess rates for a disease could be flags for increased rates in the future.