Mapping the bird reservoir potential for West Nile virus in Europe and its relationship with disease occurrence in humans
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Background
West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne Flavivirus , with bird populations reservoirs. Although often asymptomatic, infection in humans can cause febrile symptoms and more rarely, severe neurological symptoms that may lead to death. Mapping WNV bird reservoir is important towards understanding the distribution of WNV cases in humans.
Aim
Our objective was to generate a WNV Reservoir Index (RI), quantifying the bird reservoir potential across Europe, and validate the RI using human cases notifications.
Methods
We first used a bird traits-based model to estimate WNV seroprevalence in 150 European passerine bird species. This allowed us to build a map of the WNV bird RI across Europe. To validate this metric, we investigated its association with WNV human cases notified at the NUTS administrative region scale, using a Besag-York-Mollie spatial model in a Bayesian framework.
Results
We first identified eco-ethological characteristics associated with higher WNV seroprevalence in wild birds. Second, we mapped the RI that showed a strong spatial heterogeneity across Europe, with overall high RI values (i.e. a high reservoir potential for WNV) in Central and Eastern Europe, despite variations at small geographical scale. At the NUTS level, the RI was positively associated with the number of years with notified WNV human cases between 2016 and 2023.
Conclusions
We provide a map quantifying the suitability for WNV to circulate in the bird reservoir. This allows to target surveillance efforts in areas at risk for WNV zoonotic infections in the future.
