Precision Estimates of Longitudinal Brain Aging Capture Unexpected Individual Differences in One Year

Longitudinal studies are required to measure individual differences in human brain aging, but they are dif>icult to estimate over short intervals because of measurement error. Using cluster scanning, an approach that reduces error by densely repeating rapid structural scans, we assessed brain aging in individuals across three longitudinal timepoints spaced across one year. Cluster scanning substantially improved the precision of individualized estimates, revealing previously undetectable individual differences in brain change. In just one year, expected differences in the rates of brain aging between younger and older individuals were evident, as were differences between cognitively unimpaired and impaired individuals. Each person’s brain change trajectory was compared to modeled normative expectations from a large cohort of age-matched UK Biobank participants. Cognitively unimpaired older individuals variably revealed relative brain maintenance, unexpectedly rapid decline, and asymmetrical changes. These atypical brain aging trajectories were found across structures and veri>ied in independent within-individual test and retest data. Cluster scanning promises to advance our understanding of the marked heterogeneity in brain aging by affording better short-term tracking of individual variability in structural change.