Mapping the regulatory effects of common and rare non-coding variants across cellular and developmental contexts in the brain and heart

Whole genome sequencing has identified over a billion non-coding variants in humans, while GWAS has revealed the non-coding genome as a significant contributor to disease. However, prioritizing causal common and rare non-coding variants in human disease, and understanding how selective pressures have shaped the non-coding genome, remains a significant challenge. Here, we predicted the effects of 15 million variants with deep learning models trained on single-cell ATAC-seq across 132 cellular contexts in adult and fetal brain and heart, producing nearly two billion context-specific predictions. Using these predictions, we distinguish candidate causal variants underlying human traits and diseases and their context-specific effects. While common variant effects are more cell-type-specific, rare variants exert more cell-type-shared regulatory effects, with selective pressures particularly targeting variants affecting fetal brain neurons. To prioritize de novo mutations with extreme regulatory effects, we developed FLARE, a context-specific functional genomic model of constraint. FLARE outperformed other methods in prioritizing case mutations from autism-affected families near syndromic autism-associated genes; for example, identifying mutation outliers near CNTNAP2 that would be missed by alternative approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate the potential of integrating single-cell maps with population genetics and deep learning-based variant effect prediction to elucidate mechanisms of development and disease–ultimately, supporting the notion that genetic contributions to neurodevelopmental disorders are predominantly rare.