Parallel adaptation to geothermally-warmed habitats due to common structural variation and functional developmental pathways

Climate change is causing rapid increases in temperature which drives genomic changes tied to adaptation. However, predicting the outcomes of climate change presents challenges as the anticipated conditions have yet to be experienced by natural populations. Modelling and lab experiments suggest that natural populations will experience shifts in life history, physiology, phenology, and ecology, but the underlying genomic mechanisms involved are unknown. However, some contemporary natural populations experience habitat warming through geothermal activity and can provide valuable insights into evolutionary responses. Geothermally warmed habitats should impose strong selection on ectotherms compared to ambient habitats as they increase metabolic demands, alter developmental processes, and offer novel ecological conditions. We leveraged Icelandic threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from populations that have adaptively diverged along a geothermal/ambient habitat axis. We obtained 173,485 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across four independent instances of population divergence using whole genome sequencing. While the majority of genomic differentiation between geothermal/ambient ecotypes was non-parallel, the MAPK signalling pathway appeared across all ecotype pairs. We also identified a putative inversion located on chromosome XXI which appears to drive parallel genomic differentiation between geothermal and ambient ecotypes. Candidate genes within the putative inversion correspond to metabolic adaptations, including regulation of appetite and fat content. Appetite level showed strong heritable divergence between ecotypes, while the rate of weight loss during starvation and fat levels differed between ecotypes. Overall, both polygenic adaptation and parallel structural variation appeared to be key genomic mechanisms for adaptation to geothermally warmed environments. While allelic divergence was largely unique across populations, it resulted in similar functional phenotypic outcomes. Thus, structural and allelic variation both operate to facilitate adaptation to warming environments. Therefore, while management from a genomic perspective will play a role in mitigating the effects of climate change, this study suggests that consideration of functional molecular pathways will be key to conservation but with precise changes being difficult to predict due to the highly polygenic nature of thermal adaptation.