Mathematically modeling worried-well behavior during infectious disease outbreaks

Mitigation and control of novel infectious disease outbreaks requires a strategic response from public health officials. Such a response requires curtailment of both the underlying pathogen as well as public concern. There is an extensive amount of literature on the former, however empirical models catered to the latter are lacking. We seek to fill this gap by presenting a mathematical model that governs spread of “worried-well” behavior within an infectious disease outbreak. Such behavioral concerns, that are marked by an absence of the underlying pathogen infection, manifest themselves in varied degrees ranging from protesting behavior against public health measures to overly isolating behavior leading to mental anxiety. Our work shows different strategies are required for different degrees of worried-well behavior. We provide a framework to mathematically formulate such behavior and provide guidance on controlling surges of such population groups under varied proportions. Since compliance to public health measures is strongly influenced by effective public health messaging, estimates of such population groups are imperative to public health officials.