Impact of climatic variations on the global distribution and prevalence of Mpox disease: Analysis of data from 52 countries using linear regression and time forecasting analyses

MPOX infection has become a global health concern. Despite this global concern, the disease has shown epidemiological variations across different countries. This study examines the impact of climatic variations on MPOX prevalence and mortality using quantitative, cross-sectional approach. We analyzed daily confirmed MPOX cases from 52 countries using linear regression and Prophet models, focusing on average mean surface air temperature, precipitation, and climate types based on the Köppen classification. Globally, no significant relationship was found between temperature, precipitation, and MPOX prevalence (p-values 0.99 and 0.82); no significance was also noted for mortality globally (p-values 0.45 and 0.54). However, temperature had a more substantial impact on MPOX prevalence in Europe and South America (p-values of 0.049 and 0.0036, respectively). Precipitation was also significant in South America (p-value 0.044). The Prophet model, accounting for seasonality, revealed fluctuating influences of temperature and precipitation on MPOX prevalence, with their effects diminishing over time. Tropical and temperate climate types were most strongly associated with increased MPOX transmission. Monitoring these climatic factors, particularly in affected regions, is crucial for understanding and mitigating MPOX spread and its associated mortality.