The Cancer Burden in the Abu Dhabi Population: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Cancer is the third-leading cause of death in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There are few studies on cancer epidemiology in the UAE.

Methods

This retrospective study, from 2011 to 2013 until 2023, aimed to estimate the prevalence of a history of cancer and lifetime risk and identify its risk factors.

Results

Among 8635 cancer-free participants at the time of screening, 209 were diagnosed with new cancer (2.5%) over the follow-up period, 129 (1.9%) females compared to 80 (0.9%) males. The most common type of cancer was Breast cancer, with an incidence of 18% (37 cases) out of the 209 total cases, all females. The second most common type was Thyroid Cancer, with 31 cases; 24 of them were females, and 7 were males. The third most common type was colon cancer, with 22 cases, 11 females and 11 males. Other types of cancer were found but had lower incidence, such as Adrenal, skin cancer, ovarian, bladder, and gastrointestinal GI cancers. The prevalence was comparable to the latest published report of the Abu Dhabi cancer registry in 2019.

Among the whole cohort, Cox regression analysis showed only age and higher levels of HDL as risk factors for any cancer after screening when including possible risk factors that were assessed at baseline. The risk increases by 4.8% for each year older and 52% for each unit increase in HDL. The area Under the ROC Curve of the developed model for predicting any cancer type is 0.739 (0.707-0.771).

Conclusion

This study calls for focused research on different types of cancer to identify significant predictors to aid early diagnosis and management, as well as research on prevention and survival. This study’s results provide critical input to the country’s decision-makers on cancer services and are informative internationally as the risk factors identified are prevalent worldwide and may be targeted with available interventions.