Simple controls exceed best deep learning algorithms and reveal foundation model effectiveness for predicting genetic perturbations

Modeling genetic perturbations and their effect on the transcriptome is a key area of pharmaceutical research. Due to the complexity of the transcriptome, there has been much excitement and development in deep learning (DL) because of its ability to model complex relationships. In particular, the transformer-based foundation model paradigm emerged as the gold-standard of predicting post-perturbation responses. However, understanding these increasingly complex models and evaluating their practical utility is lacking, along with simple but appropriate benchmarks to compare predictive methods. Here, we present a simple baseline method that outperforms both state of the art (SOTA) in DL and other proposed simpler neural architectures, setting a necessary benchmark to evaluate in the field of post-perturbation prediction. We also elucidate the utility of foundation models for the task of post-perturbation prediction via generalizable fine-tuning experiments that can be translated to different applications of transformer-based foundation models to tasks of interest. Furthermore, we provide a corrected version of a popular dataset used for benchmarking perturbation prediction models. Our hope is that this work will properly contextualize further development of DL models in the perturbation space with necessary control procedures.