Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 XEC variant

The SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 variant (BA.2.86.1.1), arising from BA.2.86.1 with spike protein (S) substitution S:L455S, outcompeted the previously predominant XBB lineages by the beginning of 2024. Subsequently, JN.1 subvariants including KP.2 (JN.1.11.1.2) and KP.3 (JN.1.11.1.3), which acquired additional S substitutions (e.g., S:R346T, S:F456L, and S:Q493E), have emerged concurrently. As of October 2024, KP.3.1.1 (JN.1.11.1.3.1.1), which acquired S:31del, outcompeted other JN.1 subvariants including KP.2 and KP.3 and is the most predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the world. Thereafter, XEC, a recombinant lineage of KS.1.1 (JN.13.1.1.1) and KP.3.3 (JN.1.11.1.3.3), was first identified in Germany on August 7, 2024. XEC acquired two S substitutions, S:T22N and S:F59S, compared with KP.3 through recombination, with a breakpoint at genomic position 21,738–22,599. We estimated the relative effective reproduction number (Re) of XEC using a Bayesian multinomial logistic model based on genome surveillance data from the USA, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Germany, where this variant has spread as of August 2024. In the USA, the Re of XEC is 1.13-fold higher than that of KP.3.1.1. Additionally, the other countries under investigation herein showed higher Re for XEC. These results suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1. We then assessed the virological properties of XEC using pseudoviruses. Pseudovirus infection assay showed that the infectivity of KP.3.1.1 and XEC was significantly higher than that of KP.3. Although S:T22N did not affect the infectivity of the pseudovirus based on KP.3, S:F59S significantly increased it. Neutralization assay was performed using three types of human sera: convalescent sera after breakthrough infection (BTI) with XBB.1.5 or KP.3.3, and convalescent sera after JN.1 infection. In all serum groups, XEC as well as KP.3.1.1 showed immune resistance when compared to KP.3 with statistically significant differences. In the cases of XBB.1.5 BTI sera and JN.1 infection sera, the 50% neutralization titers (NT50s) of XEC and KP.3.1.1 were comparable. However, we revealed that the NT50 of XEC was significantly (1.3-fold) lower than that of KP.3.1.1. Moreover, both S:T22N and S:F59S significantly (1.5-fold and 1.6-fold) increased the resistance to KP.3.3 BTI sera. Here we showed that XEC exhibited higher pseudovirus infectivity and higher immune evasion than KP.3. Particularly, XEC exhibited more robust immune resistance to KP.3.3 BTI sera than KP.3.1.1. Our data suggest that the higher Re of XEC than KP.3.1.1 is attributed to this property and XEC will be a predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the world in the near future.