Can we predict sleep health based on brain features? A large-scale machine learning study using UK Biobank

Backgrounds: Several correlational or group comparison evidence highlighted robust associations between sleep health and macro-scale brain organization. However, inter-individual variability is critical in such interplay. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the role of brain imaging features in predicting diverse sleep health-related characteristics at the individual subject level using the Machine Learning (ML) approach. Methods: A sample of 28,088 participants from the UK Biobank was employed to calculate 4677 structural and functional neuroimaging markers. Then, we employed them to predict self-reported insomnia symptoms, sleep duration, easiness of getting up in the morning, chronotype, daily nap, daytime sleepiness, and snoring. To assess the predictability of brain features, we built seven different linear and nonlinear ML models for each sleep health-related characteristic. Results: We performed extensive ML analyses that involved more than 19 years of compute time. We observed relatively low performance in predicting all sleep health-related characteristics from brain images (e.g., balanced accuracy ranging between 0.50-0.59). Across all models, the best performance achieved was 0.59, using a linear ML model to predict the ease of getting up in the morning. In fact, a similar performance was achieved with models trained solely on age and sex, indicating that these demographic factors might be the ones driving the predictions. Conclusions: The low capability of multimodal neuroimaging markers in predicting sleep health-related characteristics, even under extensive ML optimization in a large population sample, suggests a complex relationship between sleep health and brain organization.