Expectation generation and its effect on subsequent pain and visual perception

Bayesian accounts of perception, such as predictive processing, suggest that perceptions integrate expectations and sensory experience, and thus assimilate to expected values. Furthermore, more precise expectations should have stronger influences on perception. We tested these hypotheses in a paradigm that manipulates both the mean value and the precision of cues within-person. Forty-five participants observed cues–presented as ratings from 10 previous participants–with varying cue means, variances (precision), and skewness across trials. Participants reported expectations regarding the painfulness of thermal stimuli or the visual contrast of flickering checkerboards. Subsequently, similar cues were each followed by a visual or noxious thermal stimulus. While perceptions assimilated to expected values in both modalities, cues’ precision mainly affected visual ratings. Furthermore, behavioral and computational models revealed that expectations were biased towards extreme values in both modalities, and towards low-pain cues specifically. fMRI analysis revealed that the cues affected systems related to higher-level affective and cognitive processes–including assimilation to the cue mean in a neuromarker of endogenous contributions to pain and in the nucleus accumbens, and activity consistent with aversive prediction-error-like encoding in the periaqueductal gray during pain perception–but not systems related to early perceptual processing. Our findings suggest that predictive processing theories should be combined with mechanisms such as selective attention to better fit empirical findings, and that expectation generation and its perceptual effects are mostly modality-specific and operate on higher-level processes rather than early perception.