Diabetes and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older adults in China, England, Mexico, rural South Africa, and the United States: A population-based study of longitudinal aging cohorts

Objective

There is a need for comparable worldwide data on the impact of diabetes on mortality. This study assessed diabetes and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older adults in five countries.

Research Design and Methods

We analyzed adults aged 51 years or older followed between 2010 and 2020 from population-based cohorts in China, England, Mexico, rural South Africa, and the United States. Diabetes was defined by self-report or an elevated diabetes blood-based biomarker meeting the clinical criteria for diabetes. All-cause mortality was assessed through linkages or informant interviews. We used Poisson regression models to estimate mortality rate ratios and mortality rate differences, comparing people with diabetes to those without diabetes. Models were adjusted for age, gender, education, smoking status, body mass index, and economic status.

Results

We included 29,397 individuals, of whom 4,916 (16.7%) died during the study period. The median follow-up time ranged from 4.6 years in South Africa to 8.3 years in China. The adjusted all-cause mortality rate ratios for people with diabetes versus those without diabetes ranged from 1.53 (95% CI: 1.39-1.68) in the United States to 2.02 (95% CI: 1.34-3.06) in Mexico. The adjusted mortality rate differences (per 1,000 person-years) for people with diabetes versus those without diabetes ranged from 11.9 (95% CI: 4.8-18.9) in England to 24.6 (95% CI: 12.2-37.0) in South Africa.

Conclusions

Diabetes was associated with increased all-cause mortality in population-based cohorts across five diverse countries. There is an urgent need to implement clinical and public health interventions to improve diabetes outcomes globally.

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