Genetic variation in phenology of wild Arabidopsis thaliana plants

Phenology and the timing of development are often under selection, but at the same time influence selection on other traits by controlling how traits are expressed across seasons. Plants often exhibit high natural genetic variation in phenology when grown in controlled environments, and many genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying phenology have been dissected. There remains considerable diversity of germination and flowering time within populations in the wild and the contribution of genetics to phenological variation of wild plants is largely unknown. We obtained collection dates of naturally inbred Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from nature and compared them to experimental data on the descendant inbred lines that we synthesized from two new and 155 published controlled experiments. We tested whether the genetic variation in flowering and germination timing from experiments predicted the phenology of the same inbred lines in nature. We found that genetic variation in phenology from controlled experiments significantly, but weakly, predicts day of collection from the wild, even when measuring collection date with accumulated photothermal units. We found that experimental flowering time breeding values were correlated to wild flowering time at location of origin estimated from herbarium collections. However, local variation in collection dates within a region was not explained by genetic variation in experiments, suggesting high plasticity across small-scale environmental gradients. This apparent low heritability in natural populations may suggest strong selection or many generations are required for phenological adaptation and the emergence of genetic clines in phenology.