Yellow fever outbreak potential in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen

The importation of arbovirus diseases into countries where they are not currently endemic is a global concern, driven by human movement and direct and indirect climate change effects. In the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean region, three countries - the Republic of Djibouti, the Federal Republic of Somalia, and the Republic of Yemen - are currently considered to be at potential or moderate risk for yellow fever outbreaks, and an assessment for outbreak potential in the event of importation was sought. Djibouti and Somalia share land borders and significant cross-border movement with countries where yellow fever is endemic, while Yemen is currently experiencing a crisis which has severely impacted healthcare infrastructure, and has already seen suspected outbreaks of other similar arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and West Nile.

Here we present a mathematical modelling assessment of the risk of introduction and propagation of yellow fever in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen. This modelling has two components: projecting the risk of importation of infectious individuals into individual administrative regions of the countries of interest, and the use of a dynamic yellow fever model to model yellow fever virus transmission within the same regions.

We present results showing that certain regions of Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen are at higher risk than others for yellow fever outbreaks, with the risk being higher in some areas such as the western coastal regions of Yemen (an area that has experienced recent outbreaks of other arboviruses), regions of Somalia bordering both the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Republic of Kenya, and Djibouti City.