Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways

Transmission of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) within commercial swine barns occurs through direct and indirect pathways. Identifying and quantifying the roles of ASFV dissemination within barns is crucial for the development of effective disease control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to examine the ASFV dissemination dynamics through eight transmission routes within commercial swine barns. We consider seven transmission routes at three disease dynamics levels: within-pens, between-pens, and within-room transmission, along with the transfer of pigs between pens within the same room. We simulated ASFV spread within barns of various sizes and layouts from rooms with a median of 32 pens (IQR:28-40), where each pen housing a median of 34 pigs (IQR: 29-36). Our model enables the tracking of the viral load in each pen and the monitoring of the disease status at the pen level. Simulation results show that between-pen transmission pathways exhibited the highest contribution to ASFV spread, accounting for 71.4%, where within-pen and within-room pathways account for 20.1% and 8.5%, respectively. Among the direct transmission pathways, nose-to-nose contact between pens was the primary route of dissemination, comprising an average of 49%, while the fecal transmission between pens contributed 21%. On the other hand, aerosol transmission within pens had the lowest contribution, accounting for less than 1%. Furthermore, we show that the daily transfer of pigs between pens did not impact the spread of ASFV. The combination of passive surveillance of daily detection and active surveillance focused on mortality allowed the detection of ASFV within three Days, with peak detection occurring when mortality rates peaked. The model also allows us to pinpoint where the majority of infections and viral load are concentrated during the ASFV spread. This work significantly deepens our understanding of ASFV spread within commercial swine production farms in the U.S. and highlights the main transmission pathways that should be prioritized when implementing ASFV countermeasure actions at the room level.