The COVID-19 pandemic in Canada’s provinces: mitigation measures and outcomes

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020 forced provincial health authorities across Canada to quickly institute infection control measures. It is now four years since the start of the global pandemic, and an opportune time to consider how Canada’s provinces compared in their SARS-CoV-2 containment policies and the resulting impacts on mortality and economic activity. I compare provincial exposure to SARS-CoV-2 using data on the number out-of-province arrivals into each province. I compare the key containment measures used in each province, the length of time that these measures were imposed, and the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines by province. Using Statistics Canada data, I also estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on provincial crude death rates during 2020-2023, and life expectancy and gross domestic product during 2020-2022. I find substantial provincial variation in pandemic responses and outcomes. The provinces varied in their use of the most stringent public health measures. Uptake of the primary COVID vaccinations varied from 76% to 92%; booster vaccination uptake varied even more. There was also marked provincial variation in mortality and economic outcomes. While this study does not estimate the impacts of provincial response stringency and COVID vaccine uptake on mortality and other outcomes, it does provide suggestive evidence that can be formally assessed in future research.