Estimating the potential impact of surveillance test-and-treat posts to reduce malaria in border regions in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

  1. Hillary M. Topazian
  2. Giovanni D. Charles
  3. Nora Schmit
  4. Matteo Pianella
  5. John M. Marshall
  6. Immo Kleinschmidt
  7. Katharina Hauck
  8. Azra C. Ghani

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Abstract

Background

The last malaria cases in near-elimination settings are often found in international border regions due to the presence of hard-to-reach populations, conflict, uneven intervention coverage, and human migration. Test-and-treat border posts are an under-researched form of active case detection used to interrupt transmission chains between countries.

Methods

An individual-based, mathematical metapopulation model of Plasmodium falciparum was used to estimate the effectiveness of border screening posts on total cases in malaria-endemic sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

The implementation of international border posts across 401 sub-national administrative units would avert a median of 7173 (IQR 1075 to 23,550) cases per unit over a 10 year period and reduce Pf PR 2-10 by a median of 0.21% (IQR 0.04 to 0.44%).

Conclusions

Border posts were most effective in low-transmission settings with high-transmission neighbours. Border posts alone in sub-Saharan Africa will not allow a country to reach elimination, particularly when considering feasibility and acceptability, but could contribute to broader control packages to targeted populations.

Article activity feed

  1. Version published to 10.1186/s12936-025-05367-w
  2. Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases

    David Guararie

    Review 2: "Estimating the Potential Impact of Surveillance Test-and-Treat Posts to Reduce Malaria in Border Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Modelling Study"

    Reviewers highlighted the study's significant contribution to understanding the role of human mobility in malaria control and its detailed simulations across 401 sub-national units

  3. Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases

    Lin Zhu

    Review 1: "Estimating the Potential Impact of Surveillance Test-and-Treat Posts to Reduce Malaria in Border Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Modelling Study"

    Reviewers highlighted the study's significant contribution to understanding the role of human mobility in malaria control and its detailed simulations across 401 sub-national units

  5. Version published to 10.1101/2024.06.28.24309631 on medRxiv