Suitability of anthrax ( Bacillus anthracis ) in the Black Sea basin through the scope of distribution modelling

The Black Sea basin has a strategic geographical location bridging Asia and Europe and depends on traditional livestock practices. Anthrax, a zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Bacillus anthracis , poses a significant global threat impacting public health, food security, pastoralist communities, and national economies. The disease is endemic or sporadic in the Black Sea basin, however, the study of its distribution has seldom been addressed, despite its burden and the presence of historical B. anthracis burial sites in the region. The viability of B. anthracis in a particular region is going to be influenced by multiple environmental factors, such as soil composition, climate, vegetation, and host abundance. To characterize the potential distribution of B. anthracis in the Black Sea basin, and therefore, the potential for anthrax outbreaks, we applied an ecological niche modelling framework using the Maxent algorithm, analyzing multiple variable combinations, and proposing a novel approach for interpreting in-risk anthrax areas. Our findings underscored the importance of host abundance to the anthrax dynamics in the region. We identified anthrax-suitable areas spanning central and eastern Türkiye, Armenia, southern Georgia, southern Russia, Bulgaria, southern and eastern Romania, Hungary, Moldova, and southern Ukraine, which align with findings from previous global and regional studies on the potential suitability of anthrax. The insights gained from our research might facilitate the development of targeted interventions and policies to mitigate the spread of this disease in pastoralist communities in the Black Sea basin.