The Impact on Well-Being of Cognitive Bias about Infectious Diseases

We investigate the relationship between bias about infectious disease and well-being. First, we empirically establish the existence and the causes of bias, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic. After that we investigate theoretically the effects of bias on well-being. In order to do this, we present a behavioral-epidemiological differential equation model derived from an agent-based model that combines rational choice behavior with infectious disease dynamics. In addition the model is evaluated normatively by an axiomatically characterized model of an ethical, impartial, eudaimonistic and individualist observer. These assumptions imply a new proof for the utilitarian principle. The result is that while increased fear improves purely epidemiological outcomes, the social welfare outcome shows mixed results; which shows that it is not enough to take only epidemiological measures into account when generating policy recommendations. Finally, we draw some practical consequences from the model, and point to some ethical considerations in modeling the interaction of policy making and public perception.