Governance is key to controlling SARS-CoV-2’s vaccine resistance

  1. Kenichi W. Okamoto
  2. Luis F. Chaves
  3. Rodrick Wallace
  4. Robert G. Wallace

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Abstract

Little attention has been paid to governance’s impacts on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. To evaluate such impacts on the evolution of vaccine resistance, we analyzed a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the risk a mutant strain capable of evading immunity emerges post-vaccine rollout. We calibrated the model with publicly available data for four territories in the Western Hemisphere qualitatively differing in pandemic interventions. The model shows an immune-evading strain to be readily selected over all infectivities in Texas. In Panama, only a high level of transmission permits immune evasion to evolve. No invasion appears likely in Costa Rica and Uruguay. Programs combining pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions are best positioned to remove the epidemiological space SARS-CoV-2 needs to evolve vaccine resistance.

One Sentence Summary

Modes of governance and production help set the evolutionary trajectories of vaccine resistance in SARS-CoV-2 before vaccine campaigns begin.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.05.26.22275649: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.05.26.22275649v1 on medRxiv