Modelling long-term COVID-19 hospital admission dynamics using empirical immune protection waning data

  1. Bastien Reyné
  2. Mircea T. Sofonea
  3. Samuel Alizon

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Abstract

Immune waning is key to the timely anticipation of COVID-19 long-term dynamics. We assess the impact of periodic vaccination campaigns using a compartmental epidemiological model with embedded multiple age structures and empiric time-dependent vaccine protection kinetics. Despite the uncertainty inherent to such scenarios, we show that vaccination campaigns decreases the yearly number of COVID-19 admissions. However, especially if restricted to individuals over 60 years old, vaccination on its own seems insufficient to prevent thousands of hospital admissions and it suffers the comparison with non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at decreasing infection transmission. The combination of such interventions and vaccination campaigns appear to provide the greatest reduction in hospital admissions.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2022.05.16.22275130v4 on medRxiv
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.05.16.22275130v3 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2022.05.16.22275130v2 on medRxiv
  4. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.05.16.22275130: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  5. Version published to 10.1101/2022.05.16.22275130v1 on medRxiv