Multi-faceted analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in the Republic of Korea considering Omicron variant: Mathematical modeling-based study
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Abstract
Background
The most recent variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has caused numerous cases worldwide including the Republic of Korea due to its fast transmission and reduced vaccine effectiveness.
Methods
A mathematical model considering age-structure, vaccine, antiviral treatment, and influx of the Omicron variant was developed. We estimated transmission rates among age groups using maximum likelihood estimation for the age-structured model. The impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (in community and border), quantified by a parameter μ in the force of infection, and vaccination were examined through a multi-faceted analysis. A theory-based endemic equilibrium study was performed to find the manageable number of cases according to Omicron-and healthcare-related factors.
Results
By fitting the model to the available data, the estimated values of μ ranged from 0.31 to 0.73, representing the intensity of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing level. If μ < 0.55 and 300,000 booster shots were administered daily from February 3, 2022, the number of severe cases was forecasted to exceed the severe bed capacity. Moreover, the number of daily cases is reduced as the timing of screening measures is delayed. If screening measure was intensified as early as November 24, 2021 and the number of overseas entrant cases was contained to 1 case per 10 days, simulations showed that the daily incidence by February 3, 2022 could have been reduced by 87%. Furthermore, we found that the incidence number in mid-December 2021 exceeded the theory-driven manageable number of daily cases.
Conclusion
Nonpharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and antiviral therapy influence the spread of Omicron and number of severe cases in the Republic of Korea. Intensive and early screening measures during the emergence of a new variant is key in controlling the epidemic size. Using the endemic equilibrium of the model, a formula for the manageable daily cases depending on the severity rate and average length of hospital stay was derived so that the number of severe cases does not surpass the severe bed capacity.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.04.15.22273907: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A limitation of the study is that breakthrough infection during MLE process was not considered due to the lack of available data. On March 14, 2022, confirmation of cases was expanded to include positive rapid antigen tests, which has a lower accuracy compared to PCR test. This may lead to under-reporting, which is not considered in this …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.04.15.22273907: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A limitation of the study is that breakthrough infection during MLE process was not considered due to the lack of available data. On March 14, 2022, confirmation of cases was expanded to include positive rapid antigen tests, which has a lower accuracy compared to PCR test. This may lead to under-reporting, which is not considered in this study. These limitations can be studied in future works.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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