Estimating the number of breakthrough COVID-19 deaths in the United States

  1. Jinkinson Smith

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Abstract

While there is compelling evidence of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, increasing attention has also been paid to the fact that, like all vaccines, they are not 100% effective. Therefore, some fully vaccinated people have developed “breakthrough” cases of COVID-19, and some of these individuals have died as a result. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of fully vaccinated or “breakthrough” deaths from COVID-19 in the United States. Data was compiled from state COVID-19 dashboards and various other sources for as many states as possible. As of March 27, 2022 based on data from 46 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, an estimated minimum of 57,617 breakthrough COVID-19 deaths had occurred in the United States. Furthermore, based on this incomplete data, a total of 12.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in the included regions and time periods were among fully vaccinated individuals (whether boosted or not). Extrapolating this data to the entire United States implies that the minimum total number of such deaths as of March 27, 2022 was 79,917. Data from a MMWR article, if similarly extrapolated to the entire country, implies a significantly larger number of breakthrough deaths throughout the United States: 99,152.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.04.04.22272731: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.04.04.22272731 on medRxiv