Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

  1. Lequan Min

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Abstract

Background

Globally COVID-19 epidemics have caused tremendous disasters. China prevented effectively the spread of COVID-19 epidemics before 2022. Recently Omicron and Delta variants cause a surge in reported COVID-19 infections.

Methods

Using differential equations and real word data, this study modelings and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, estimates transmission rates, recovery rates, and blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The transmission rates and recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 infected individuals in mainland China have also been studied.

Results

The simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. The recovery rates of the foreign input symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals are much higher than those of the mainland COVID-19 infected individuals. The blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic mainland infections are lower than those of the previous epidemics in mainland China. The blocking rate implemented between March 24-31, 2022 may not prevent the rapid spreads of COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. For the foreign input COVID-19 epidemics, the numbers of the current symptomatic individuals and the asymptomatic individuals charged in medical observations have decreased significantly after March 17 2022.

Conclusions

Need to implement more strict prevention and control strategies to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. Keeping the present prevention and therapy measures to foreign input COVID-19 infections can rapidly reduce the number of foreign input infected individuals to a very low level.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2022.04.03.22273225v2 on medRxiv
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.04.03.22273225: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Simulations and figure drawings were implemented via Matlab programs.
    Matlab
    suggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2022.04.03.22273225v1 on medRxiv