Did national holidays accelerate COVID-19 diffusion in Bangladesh? A case study

  1. Mohammad Radid Khan
  2. Sayem Mottakin
  3. Md. Ahsan Kabir
  4. Md. Enamul Hoque
  5. Mohammad Ruhul Amin
  6. Md. Shariful Islam

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Abstract

Bangladesh registered 1573828 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the death toll crossed the grim milestone of 27946 across the country as of 9th December, 2021. Despite the enforcement of stringent COVID-19 measures, including nationwide lockdowns, travel bans, tighter curbs on nonessential activities, and social distancing, the country witnessed an accelerated diffusion of coronavirus cases during the national events and festivals in 2020. The present study aims to examine the association between the national events / festivals and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 by looking at the instantaneous reproduction number, R t , of the 64 districts in Bangladesh. We further illustrate the COVID-19 diffusion explicitly in Dhaka Division at the first phase of the pandemic. The comprehensive analysis shows an escalation of R t value in Dhaka and in all industrialized cities during the major events such as, Garments reopening and religious holidays in Bangladesh. Based on the analysis, a set of array measurements has been also suggested to evade the future pandemic risks while running the national festival activities.

Highlights

  • Bangladesh confirmed 1573828 coronavirus cases and 27946 deaths due to the current COVID-19 outbreak.

  • Country observed significant COVID-19 diffusion in its business hubs during national holidays.

  • Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is the epicenter of the ongoing pandemic.

  • Calculated R t value illustrates its escalation in Dhaka and its neighboring cities at the time of national events.

  • Bangladesh Government needs to consider interdisciplinary approaches and contextual policies to contain the future pandemic during any national events.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.16.22272515: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    GeoPandas is a Python module based on the Pandas library that makes it easier to work with spatial data.
    Python
    suggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)
    Lastly, by using the GeoDataFrame, we visualized the map using ArcMAP software.
    ArcMAP
    suggested: None
    Rt values for different districts were calculated by using Python and the collected data were visualized in R, with RStudio as the IDE.
    RStudio
    suggested: (RStudio, RRID:SCR_000432)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.03.16.22272515 on medRxiv