The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

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1. 

   ScreenIT

   Mar 16, 2022

   SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.12.22271872: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   No key resources detected.

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   Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   There are several caveats to our model predictions. First, we use an age-contact structure derived from European data in our model; although some local data exist from South Africa, the fit of the model using these data was not as good (not shown). This study uses a short duration of RSV immunity (150 days), on the basis of it producing …

   SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.12.22271872: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   No key resources detected.

   ---

   Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

   ---

   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   There are several caveats to our model predictions. First, we use an age-contact structure derived from European data in our model; although some local data exist from South Africa, the fit of the model using these data was not as good (not shown). This study uses a short duration of RSV immunity (150 days), on the basis of it producing an optimal model fit to pre-pandemic data, as information on this parameter is scarce. In order to test the validity of this parameter, immunity was varied between 2-24 months (Appendix II). For immunity lasting beyond 150 days, the model overestimated the length of the typical RSV season in South Africa. Further, the model used does not distinguish between primary and secondary infections in relation to transmissibility and severity. We assume instead that age is the primary predictor of whether an infection will result in hospitalization. By fitting the age-structured model to age-structured observations, we show that the model predicts the distribution of hospitalizations among the studied age groups with confidence. We additionally conduct a sensitivity analysis by fitting a time-series SIR (TSIR) model which assumes a fully immunizing infection (lifelong immunity) to observed data [24]. Using the TSIR model we predict that the outbreak will occur earlier than typical and be about 3 times larger than average at the peak of infection [Appendix III]. Comparison between the two models suggest that the age-structured short-term immunity SEIRS ...

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   Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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   Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

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   Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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   Results from rtransparent:

   • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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   Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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2. 

   Version published to 10.1101/2022.03.12.22271872 on medRxiv

   Mar 13, 2022