The changing impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic
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Abstract
The Omicron wave has left a global imprinting of immunity which changes the COVID landscape. In this study, we simulate six hypothetical variants emerging over the next year and evaluate the impact of existing and improved vaccines. We base our study on South Africa’s infection- and vaccination-derived immunity. Our findings illustrate that variant-chasing vaccines will only add value above existing vaccines in the setting where a variant emerges if we can shorten the window between variant introduction and vaccine deployment to under three weeks, an impossible time-frame without significant NPI use. This strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Broadly neutralizing and durable next-generation vaccines could avert over three-times as many deaths from an immune-evading variant compared to existing vaccines. Our results suggest it is crucial to develop next-generation vaccines and redress inequities in vaccine distribution to tackle future emerging variants.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.10.22272222: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources 4.1 Model overview: Covasim is an open-source agent-based model developed by the Institute for Disease Modeling with source code and documentation available at https://covasim.org. Covasimsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:3.1 Limitations of the study: Our modeling makes many assumptions that may limit the generalizability of our findings. We do not explicitly characterize co-morbidities or other factors such as immuno-suppression at the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.10.22272222: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources 4.1 Model overview: Covasim is an open-source agent-based model developed by the Institute for Disease Modeling with source code and documentation available at https://covasim.org. Covasimsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:3.1 Limitations of the study: Our modeling makes many assumptions that may limit the generalizability of our findings. We do not explicitly characterize co-morbidities or other factors such as immuno-suppression at the individual-level in the model. For these populations who are at highest risk of severe outcomes if infected with SARS-CoV-2, ongoing boosters remain a highly relevant and valuable strategy. We are also not capturing new birth cohorts into the model with near complete susceptibilty and no prior immunity to COVID beyond mother-to-child immune transference, for whom any vaccination strategy would be better than risking infection (30; 31). While our model has a robust mechanistic representation of immune dynamics, we do not capture the process of affinity maturation that antibodies go through over time and after repeated exposures to an antigen that increase the breadth of the immune response even in the face of waning (32). As a result, we may at times be under-estimating the protection retained over time against infection.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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