COVID-19 Vaccination is Associated with Decreasing Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Across Age Groups and Variants over 9 months in Switzerland

  1. Jean-Luc Jucker

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Abstract

Recent studies assessing COVID-19 vaccine efficacy at the population level found counterintuitive results, such as positive associations between vaccination and infections or deaths. These ecological studies have limitations, including too short observation periods, focusing on infections, and not controlling for age groups and dominant variants. The current study addresses these limitations by investigating the relations between vaccination and COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over a longer period (9½ months) while also considering age groups (from 10 to 80+ years old) and variants (Alpha and Delta), utilizing data from Switzerland. Results suggest that vaccination is negatively related to cases overall and in all cantons of Switzerland, and that vaccination is negatively related to hospitalizations and deaths from 50 years old. Furthermore, vaccination is a significant predictor of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths while holding the effects of age and dominant variant constant.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.03.22270396: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This ecological study has several limitations. First, it utilizes data from a single, highly specific population. Second, it considers only fully vaccinated persons. Partially vaccinated persons were not included in analyses9, and booster vaccination was not available in Switzerland in the period under consideration. Third, it includes only two COVID-19 variants (i.e., Alpha and Delta). Since the efficacy of currently available vaccines might be reduced with the current dominant variant B.1.1.529 Omicron (Wilhelm et al., preprint here), this is an important limitation. That being said, the current study provides some evidence that vaccination is inversely related to COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths at the population level, in this case in Switzerland. Further research should include other/several countries, as well as other variants (in particular, Omicron) to confirm or infirm the current findings. While doing so, future research should carefully consider the role of age, variants, and population size [4-5], and use longer observation periods.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.02.03.22270396 on medRxiv