IMPACT OF WEEKNIGHT AND WEEKEND CURFEWS USING MOBILITY DATA: A CASE STUDY OF BENGALURU URBAN
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Abstract
Karnataka imposed weeknight and weekend curfews to mitigate the spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to assess the impact of curfew using community mobility reports published by Google. Then, we quantify the impact of such restrictions via a simulation study. The pattern of weeknight and weekend curfew, followed by relaxations during the weekdays, seems, at best, to slow and delay the Omicron spread. The simulation outcomes suggest that Omicron eventually spreads and affects nearly as much of the population as it would have without the restrictions. Further, if Karnataka cases trajectory follows the South African Omicron wave trend and the hospitalisation is similar to that observed in well-vaccinated countries (2% of the confirmed cases), then the healthcare requirement is likely within the capacity of Bengaluru Urban when the caseload peaks, with or without the mobility restrictions. On the other hand, if Karnataka cases trajectory follows both the South African Omicron wave trend and the hospitalisation requirement observed there (6.9%), then the healthcare capacity may be exceeded at peak, with or without the mobility restrictions.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.26.22269903: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:We first describe the limitations of our study. The analysis and hospitalisation forecast assumes that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is the dominant variant. However, if the Delta variant is still prevalent, hospitalisation and the severity estimations may differ from those for the Omicron variant. Regular and timely sequencing data …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.26.22269903: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:We first describe the limitations of our study. The analysis and hospitalisation forecast assumes that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is the dominant variant. However, if the Delta variant is still prevalent, hospitalisation and the severity estimations may differ from those for the Omicron variant. Regular and timely sequencing data will tell us whether the Delta variant is still in circulation or not. Further, our study focused only on cases and associated estimates of required hospital beds. In particular, we have not examined several other important factors, e.g., workforce shortages, overcrowding events in enclosed spaces, etc. Moreover, our model has a homogenised contact rate for the entire week, and the impact of the curfew is modelled as a reduction in the weekly contact rate. Finally, as already highlighted, our assessment of the curfew is based on Google’s published community mobility reports which may suffer from an inherent sampling bias. With these caveats highlighted, we now discuss the outcomes of our simulation case study for Bengaluru Urban. Reduced testing levels or increased home testing may bring the case counts down, resulting in an overestimation of the predicted cases. But estimates of hospitalisation and ICU beds with ventilators may yet be robust since individuals needing such care may eventually seek healthcare support. Our study is yet another example of the vital role models can play in assisting policymakers in making more informed choices. Ho...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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