Evaluation of the effects of vaccination regimes on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

  1. Ichiro Nakamoto

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has yet to be eliminated globally despite the advancement of immunization programs. Evaluation of the effects of the vaccination regimes of COVID-19 is critical for understanding the potential capacity of countermeasures and informing subsequent prioritization strategies of responses. Research and observational data provide broad support regarding the importance of effective vaccines, in contrast, debates remain on the timing and priority of booster vaccination under the assumption of resource constraint. This study aims to evaluate the effect of vaccination regimes on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic from the medium-term perspective. We employ a mathematical model to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with COVID-19, thereafter perform simulation on the transmission dynamics of the epidemic up to 3 years. The outcomes imply that in the absence of severe variants of the pathogen, administration of booster vaccination curtails the peak size of total cases and share of severe infections at later waves. Nevertheless, it can be better off by prioritizing the primary doses to unvaccinated individuals when vaccine shortage is challenged. The effects of priority categories are consistent across a broad range of profiles. Increasing the rollout capacity (i.e., administration rate) of doses can render the reproduction number lower than one and hence contain the transmission of pandemic ultimately controlling for other factors. The timing of rollout of primary doses is pivotal in reducing the magnitude of transmission saturation. It is of importance to prioritize the administration of primary vaccination series to vulnerable individuals efficiently and thereafter increment of administration capacity when the supply of vaccine increases over time to scale down the size of an epidemic.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.22.22269569: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    To reasonably interpret the findings, it is crucial to reflect the limitations inherent in the analysis. Although we partially take into account the dynamics of the transmission by calibrating a time-varying case, most of the outcomes are based on deterministic models and time-invariant analysis, which might be disparate from the stochastic variability in practice. We conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis to show the degree of robustness by incorporating potential confounding parameters. The unvaccinated populations are accounted for in the model, but we did not explicitly rationalize the potential heterogeneity within these populations. Further stratified analysis may lead to refined findings. Although administration of booster dose at the population level is not of priority currently subject to resource limitations, it could be preferable to distribute locally booster dose at the individual level with priority to immunity-compromised patients and essential healthcare workers whose risk of being infected is considerably high. Analysis indicated that antibodies against COVID-19 conferred by vaccines were critical in disease prevention and recovery. Hence, long-term tracking the dynamics of immunity can provide important insight, prognosis, and control of COVID-19 46. Further studies are required to understand whether heterogeneity of vaccination campaigns has rendered stratified containment effects. The supply of vaccines is increasing over time but global supply imbala...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.01.22.22269569v1 on medRxiv