Application of the Logistic Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa and the United States: Correlations and Predictions
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Abstract
We apply the logistic model to the four waves of COVID-19 taking place in South Africa over the period 3 January 2020 through 14 January 2022. We show that this model provides an excellent fit to the time history of three of the four waves. We then derive a theoretical correlation between the growth rate of each wave and its duration, and demonstrate that it is well obeyed by the South African data.
We then turn to the data for the United States. As shown by Roberts (2020a, 2020b), the logistic model provides only a marginal fit to the early data. Here we break the data into six “waves,” and treat each one separately. Five of the six can be analyzed, and we present full results. We then ask if these data provide a way to predict the length of the ongoing Omicron wave in the US (commonly called “wave 4,” but the sixth wave as we have broken the data up). Comparison of these data to those from South Africa, and internal evaluation of the US data, suggest that this current wave will peak about 18 January 2022, and will be substantially over by about 11 February 2022. The total number of infected persons by the time that the Omicron wave is completely over is projected be between 22 and 24 million.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.12.22269193: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter:…
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.12.22269193: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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