Updated projections for COVID-19 omicron wave in Florida

  1. Thomas J. Hladish
  2. Alexander N. Pillai
  3. Ira M. Longini

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Abstract

In this report, we use a detailed simulation model to assess and project the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida. The model is a data-driven, stochastic, discrete-time, agent based model with an explicit representation of people and places. Using the model, we find that the omicron variant wave in Florida is likely to cause many more infections than occurred during the delta variant wave. Due to testing limitations and often mild symptoms, however, we anticipate that omicron infections will be underreported compared to delta. We project that reported cases of COVID-19 will continue to grow significantly and peak in early January 2022, and that the number of reported COVID-19 deaths due to omicron may be 1/3 of the total caused by the delta wave.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.06.22268849: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    In our model, we simulate a generalized mRNA vaccine (Table. 2) that performs similarly to the BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines that have been used in Florida [8].
    BioNTech
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Due to limitations in testing capacity, milder infections in vaccinees, and reduced sensitivity of some tests to the omicron variant, we believe that a smaller fraction of omicron infections will be detected as cases compared to previous waves. We expect reported cases to peak in the first half of January 2022. Preliminary data suggest that boosting may dramatically increase protection against disease caused by omicron infections [4]. We therefore recommend eligible people receive boosters as soon as possible. Furthermore, absenteeism among infected health care workers combined with a rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 patients may substantially strain the health care system. This may be particularly serious for pediatrics, as children under 5 are not eligible for vaccination and may be more likely to experience severe omicron infections than adults [6]. We recommend particular care be taken to protect young children from exposure to the omicron variant.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.01.06.22268849v1 on medRxiv