Test to release from isolation after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
-
The rapid spread and high transmissibility of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to lead to a significant number of key workers testing positive simultaneously.
-
Under a policy of self-isolation after testing positive, this may lead to extreme staffing shortfalls at the same time as e.g. hospital admissions are peaking.
-
Using a model of individual infectiousness and testing with lateral flow tests (LFT), we evaluate test-to-release policies against conventional fixed-duration isolation policies in terms of excess days of infectiousness, days saved, and tests used.
-
We find that the number of infectious days in the community can be reduced to almost zero by requiring at least 2 consecutive days of negative tests, regardless of the number of days’ wait until testing again after initially testing positive.
-
On average, a policy of fewer days’ wait until initiating testing (e.g 3 or 5 days) results in more days saved vs. a 10-day isolation period, but also requires a greater number of tests.
-
Due to a lack of specific data on viral load progression, infectivity, and likelihood of testing positive by LFT over the course of an Omicron infection, we assume the same parameters as for pre-Omicron variants and explore the impact of a possible shorter proliferation phase.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.04.21268372: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This work has several limitations. We use a viral load model based on pre-Omicron parameters (10) due to a lack of data on the viral kinetics in Omicron infections. Evidence from pseudovirus infectivity assays (15) and early estimates of a shorter incubation period (13) may indicate faster proliferation of Omicron, for which we conduct a sensitivity analysis assuming a 50% shorter proliferation period (Figure S4). In this analysis, the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.04.21268372: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This work has several limitations. We use a viral load model based on pre-Omicron parameters (10) due to a lack of data on the viral kinetics in Omicron infections. Evidence from pseudovirus infectivity assays (15) and early estimates of a shorter incubation period (13) may indicate faster proliferation of Omicron, for which we conduct a sensitivity analysis assuming a 50% shorter proliferation period (Figure S4). In this analysis, the shortened proliferation phase in effect results in faster relative time from exposure to clearance. However, whether the peak to clearance phase is lengthened is yet unknown, as is the potential interaction with vaccination (in particular boosters), which also reduces the duration of clearance (10), or prior infection. Also unknown is whether peak viral loads are higher or lower in Omicron-infected individuals and the sensitivity of different LFTs to Omicron given changes to the Nucleocapsid (N) antigen, though early assessment indicates sensitivity of tests licensed in the UK is similar to previous variants (8). We model infectiousness as equal to the probability of culturing virus for a given viral load (11) though a like-for-like comparison indicates LFTs to be more sensitive than culture (Figure S1), which may be a result of the difficulty and limits of detection when culturing live virus or alternatively a short period of residual LFT positivity after the infectious period (16). If individuals test positive for over 10 days then it may be ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
-
