Combining antigenic data from public sources gives an early indication of the immune escape of emerging virus variants

  1. Antonia Netzl
  2. Sina Türeli
  3. Eric B. LeGresley
  4. Barbara Mühlemann
  5. Samuel H. Wilks
  6. Derek J. Smith

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Abstract

The rapid spread of the Omicron BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1) SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) variant in 2021 resulted in international efforts to quickly assess its escape from immunity generated by vaccines and previous infections. Numerous laboratories published BA.1 neutralization data as preprints and reports. We collated this data in real time and regularly presented updates of the aggregated results in US, European and WHO research and advisory settings. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the accuracy of these aggregations from 85 different sources published during a time period from 2021/12/08 up to 2022/08/14. We found that the mean titer fold change from wild type-like variants to BA.1, a standard measure of a variant’s immune escape, remained stable after the first 15 days of data reporting in people who were twice vaccinated, and incoming data increased the confidence in this quantity. Further, it is possible to build reliable, stable antigenic maps from this collated data already after one month of incoming data. We here demonstrate that combining early reports from variable, independent sources can rapidly indicate a new virus variant’s immune escape and can therefore be of immense benefit for public health.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.31.474032: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Webplotdigitizer2 was used for the following studies: GMTs for Sigal4 2*Pfizer and Infection(Inf)+Pfizer sera, Sheward5, Ciesek6, Zhang7 (subset), Krammer8, Chen9 and Veesler10 were obtained by Webplotdigitizer.
    Webplotdigitizer
    suggested: (WebPlotDigitizer, RRID:SCR_013996)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.12.31.474032 on bioRxiv