Magnitude, global variation, and temporal development of the COVID-19 infection fatality burden

  1. Christina Bohk-Ewald
  2. Enrique Acosta
  3. Tim Riffe
  4. Christian Dudel
  5. Mikko Myrskylä

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Abstract

How deadly is an infection with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide over time? This information is critical for developing and assessing public health responses on the country and global levels. However, imperfect data have been the most limiting factor for estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality burden during the first year of the pandemic. Here we leverage recently emerged compelling data sources and broadly applicable modeling strategies to estimate the crude infection fatality rate (cIFR) in 77 countries from 28 March 2020 to 31 March 2021, using 2.4 million reported deaths and estimated 435 million infections by age, sex, country, and date. The global average of all cIFR estimates is 1.2% (10th to 90th percentile: 0.2% to 2.4%). The cIFR varies strongly across countries, but little within countries over time, and it is often lower for women than men. Cross-country differences in cIFR are largely driven by the age structures of both the general and the truly infected population. While the broad trends and patterns of the cIFR estimates are more robust, we show that their levels are uncertain and sensitive to input data and modeling choices. In consequence, increased efforts at collecting high-quality data are essential for accurately estimating the cIFR, which is a key indicator for better understanding the health and mortality consequences of this pandemic.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.12.17.21267986 on medRxiv