SARS-COV-2 Omicron variant predicted to exhibit higher affinity to ACE-2 receptor and lower affinity to a large range of neutralizing antibodies, using a rapid computational platform
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Abstract
Rapid assessment of whether a pandemic pathogen may have increased transmissibility or be capable of evading existing vaccines and therapeutics is critical to mounting an effective public health response. Over the period of seven days, we utilized rapid computational prediction methods to evaluate potential public health implications of the emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Specifically, we modeled the structure of the Omicron variant, examined its interface with human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) and evaluated the change in binding affinity between Omicron, ACE-2 and publicly known neutralizing antibodies. We also compared the Omicron variant to known Variants of Concern (VoC). Seven of the 15 Omicron mutations occurring in the spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) occur at the ACE-2 cell receptor interface, and therefore may play a critical role in enhancing binding to ACE-2. Our estimates of Omicron RBD-ACE-2 binding affinities indicate that at least two of RBD mutations, Q493R and N501Y, contribute to enhanced ACE-2 binding, nearly doubling delta-delta-G (ddG) free energies calculated for other VoC’s. Binding affinity estimates also were calculated for 55 known neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Analysis of the results showed that Omicron substantially degrades binding for more than half of these neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and for roughly 10 times as many of the antibodies than the currently dominant Delta variant. This early study lends support to use of rapid computational risk assessments to inform public health decision-making while awaiting detailed experimental characterization and confirmation.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.16.472843: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite these important caveats, we believe that computational predictions have an increasingly important role in rapid response to emerging, high consequence pathogens. Specifically, computational predictions can help quantitatively communicate risk and …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.16.472843: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite these important caveats, we believe that computational predictions have an increasingly important role in rapid response to emerging, high consequence pathogens. Specifically, computational predictions can help quantitatively communicate risk and guide decision-making while awaiting experimental/real-world assessments. In ongoing and future work, we plan to compare our model predictions to experimental data to assess and improve our predictive capabilities.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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