Potential severity, mitigation, and control of Omicron waves depending on pre-existing immunity and immune evasion
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Abstract
We assess the potential consequences of the upcoming SARS-CoV-2 waves caused by the Omicron variant. Our results suggest that even in those regions where the Delta variant is controlled at the moment by a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and population immunity, a significant Omicron wave can be expected. We stratify the population according to prior immunity status, and characterize the possible outbreaks depending on the population level of pre-existing immunity and the immune evasion capability of Omicron. We point out that two countries having similar effective reproduction numbers for the Delta variant can experience very different Omicron waves in terms of peak time, peak size and total number of infections among the high risk population.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267884: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267884: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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