The Impact of Mass Exodus on the Resurgence of COVID-19 Cases: Case Study of Regions in Indonesia

  1. Wirdatul Aini
  2. Kamal Khairudin Sukandar
  3. Nuning Nuraini
  4. Dewi Handayani

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Abstract

Consideration of human mobility is essential for understanding the behavior of COVID-19 spread, especially when millions of people travel across borders around Eid al-Fitr. This study aims to grasp the effect of mass exodus between regions on active cases of COVID-19 through a mathematical perspective. We constructed a multiregional SIQRD (susceptible–infected–quarantined–recovered–death) model that accommodates the direct transfer of people from one region to others. The mobility rate was estimated using the proposed Dawson-like function, which requires data from an origin–destination matrix. Assuming that only susceptible, inapparently infected, and recovered individuals travel around Eid al-Fitr, the rendered model well-depicted the actual data at that time, giving either a significant spike or decline in the number of active cases due to the mass exodus. Most agglomerated regions such as Jakarta and Depok City experienced a fall in active case numbers, both in actual data and in the simulated model. However, most rural areas experienced the opposite, such as Bandung District and Cimahi City. This study confirmed that most travelers journeyed from big cities to the rural regions, and it scientifically demonstrated that mass mobility affects COVID-19 transmission between areas.

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  1. Version published to 10.3389/fams.2022.912150
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.06.21267391: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.12.06.21267391 on medRxiv