Individual vaccine efficacy variation with time since mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination estimated by rapid, quantitative antibody measurements from a finger-prick sample
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Abstract
We show that an individual’s immune status to Covid-19 can be monitored through quantitative antibody measurements using a method based on centrifugal microfluidics, specifically designed for speed to result (20 min), high throughput (8 samples simultaneously) and accuracy from a finger-prick blood sample. Anti-Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) IgG concentration showed a log-normal distribution with mean decreasing with time following the second vaccination with mRNA BNT162b2 (Pfizer). Using a model for an individual’s antibody concentration-dependent vaccine efficacy allowed comparison with literature data on changing vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease across a population. Even though the trial was small ( n = 100) the computed population vaccine efficacy was in reasonable agreement with that obtained from a large population survey. The derived parameters for the vaccine efficacy model were in good agreement with those expected from previous studies and from a simple theoretical model. The results and modelling show that the major proportion of breakthrough infections are for people whose antibody concentration is in the tail of the distribution. The results provide strong support for personalized booster programmes that, by targeting people in the tail of the distribution, should be more effective at diminishing breakthrough infection and optimising booster dose supply than a program that simply mandates a booster at a specific post-vaccination time point.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.30.21267102: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this study is that the small number of participants, without comprehensive coverage of the full range of vaccination date, meant that the full range of breakthrough infection rate data dependent on vaccination date could not be used. The …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.30.21267102: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this study is that the small number of participants, without comprehensive coverage of the full range of vaccination date, meant that the full range of breakthrough infection rate data dependent on vaccination date could not be used. The probability distribution of concentration for the full range of date also could not be assessed accurately: specifically, to have sufficient data in each date range, the date ranges were broad and thus there was not a strong discrimination between the results for the later date ranges. Both these limitations led to uncertainty in the assessment of the distribution of individual vaccine efficacy. Despite these limitations, the effect of time since vaccination on individual vaccine efficacy distribution is clear and the model has captured the general trend well. Figure 2 illustrates the very significant range of estimated VE across the participants in this study. The effect of the log-normal distribution of concentration is that the most significant contribution to breakthrough infections comes from people in the low-concentration tail of the distribution. From Figure 2, estimated median vaccine efficacy 90% (range 65-95%) < 90 days post vaccination, 75%(range 35 – 90%) 90 – 170 days and 65% (range 35-90%) 170 – 230 days though the theoretical model implies that the range at longer time may be significantly larger. The results have implications for the design of booster vaccination programmes directed at optimising the use of ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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