Phase Shift Between Age-Specific COVID-19 Incidence Curves Points to a Potential Epidemic Driver Function of Kids and Juveniles in Germany

  1. Hans H. Diebner

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Abstract

Mutual phase shifts between three German COVID-19 incidence curves corresponding to the age classes of children, juveniles and adults, respectively, are calculated by means of delay-cross-correlations. At the country level, a phase shift of −5 weeks during the first half of the epidemic between the incidence curves corresponding to the juvenile age class and the curve corresponding to the adult class is observed. The children’s incidence curve is shifted by −3 weeks with respect to the adults’ curve. On the regional level of the 411 German districts (Landkreise) the distributions of observed time lags are inclined towards negative values. Regarding the incidence time series of the juvenile sub-population, 20% of the German districts exhibit negative phase shifts and only 3% show positive shifts versus the incidence curves of the adult sub-population. Similarly for the children with 6% positive shifts. Thus, children’s and juveniles’ epidemic activity is ahead of the adults’ activity. The correlation coefficients of shifted curves are large (> 0.9 for juveniles versus adults on the country level) which indicates that aside from the phase shift the sub-populations follow a similar epidemic dynamics. Negative phase shifts of the children’s incidence curves during the first and second epidemic waves are predictors for high incidences during the current fourth wave with respect to the corresponding districts.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.29.21267004: (What is this?)

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.11.29.21267004v1 on medRxiv