An immune correlate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity of reinfections

  1. Hannah E. Maier
  2. Angel Balmaseda
  3. Sergio Ojeda
  4. Cristiam Cerpas
  5. Nery Sanchez
  6. Miguel Plazaola
  7. Harm van Bakel
  8. John Kubale
  9. Roger Lopez
  10. Saira Saborio
  11. Carlos Barilla
  12. PSP Study Group
  13. Eva Harris
  14. Guillermina Kuan
  15. Aubree Gordon

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Abstract

Background

An immune correlate of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection is urgently needed.

Methods

We used an ongoing household cohort with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptom status. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity. Sequencing was performed to determine circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the protection associated with seropositivity resulting from prior infection, the anti-spike antibody titers needed for protection, and we compared the severity of first and second infections.

Results

In March 2021, 62.3% of the cohort was seropositive. After March 2021, gamma and delta variants predominated. Seropositivity was associated with 69.2% protection from any infection (95% CI: 60.7%-75.9%), with higher protection against moderate or severe infection (79.4%, 95% CI: 64.9%-87.9%). Anti-spike titers of 327 and 2,551 were associated with 50% and 80% protection from any infection; titers of 284 and 656 were sufficient for protection against moderate or severe disease. Second infections were less severe than first infections (Relative Risk (RR) of moderated or severe disease: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.38-0.98; RR of subclinical disease:1.9, 95% CI: 1.33-2.73).

Conclusions

Prior infection-induced immunity is protective against infection when predominantly gamma and delta SARS-CoV-2 circulated. The protective antibody titers presented may be useful for vaccine policy and control measures. While second infections were somewhat less severe, they were not as mild as ideal. A strategy involving vaccination will be needed to ease the burden of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.23.21266767: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    EthicsIRB: This study was approved by the institutional review boards at the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health and the University of Michigan (HUM00119145 and HUM00178355).
    Consent: Informed consent or parental permission was obtained for all participants.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Cell Line Authenticationnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Experimental Models: Cell Lines
    SentencesResources
    This study was approved by the institutional review boards at the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health and the University of Michigan (HUM00119145 and HUM00178355).
    HUM00119145
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.11.23.21266767v1 on medRxiv