Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and around the world predicted by generalized SIR model
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one in the whole world. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop to appear before November 2022. If the global situation with vaccination, testing and treatment will not change, the pandemic could continue for another ten years.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266683: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter:…
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266683: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
-
