A mathematical model for repetitive behaviors of Covid-19

  1. Yoshiro Nishimoto
  2. Kenichi Inoue

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Abstract

Covid-19 pandemic waves have been hitting us again and again in the past couple years in many countries, while the reason why they come in such repetitive manners remains unexplained, which have brought us with lingering anxieties and economic stagnations.

We proposed a mathematical model to describe the mechanism of the repetitive appearance of the number of new cases based upon the SIQR model in which Q (quarantined infectors) were distinguished from I (un-quarantined ones). The repetitive behavior of the pandemic was simulated by an activator-inhibitor system around a fixed point in a phase space as a kind of self-organized oscillations. Periods between each wave were confirmed to be approximately similar. Repetitive behaviors were also observed in actual Covid-19 data.

Practical policies and actions were discussed on the ways to effectively control the repetition of pandemic, and proactive PCR test especially after the peak-out stage is highly recommended.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.08.21266099: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.11.08.21266099v1 on medRxiv