A Mathematical Model for Stability Analysis of Covid like Epidemic/Endemic/Pandemic

  1. A.K. Awasthi
  2. Sanjeev Kumar
  3. Arun Kumar Garov

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Abstract

The transmission and spread of infectious disease like Covid-19 occurs through horizontal and vertical mode. The causative pathogens for such kind of disease may be bacterium, protozoa, virus or toxin. The infectious diseases like AIDS, SARS, MARS, Polio Plague, Bubonic Plague and Covid-19 have destroyed the social and economic structure of world population. The world scientific community adopts different mechanisms to model and analyse the population dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. Mathematical Modelling is the most effective tool to take the informed decision about the containment, control and eradication of the pandemic. The main focus of Government and public health authorities is to design the strategy in destabilising the spread and impact of the infections. A series of models-SIR, SEIR, SEIRD, SEAIHCRD, SAUQAR has been under study to combat the Covid-19 since its inception. An effort has been made to design the model based on reproduction number, endemic equilibrium and disease-free equilibrium to curtail the impact of Covid-19 through stability analysis methods-Hurwitz stability criteria, Lyapunov Method and Linear Stability Analysis.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.08.21265055: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.11.08.21265055v1 on medRxiv