Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
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- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
- Evaluated articles (Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases)
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma’s detection, and were largely transient after Gamma’s detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Note
The following manuscript has appeared as ‘Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals’ at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 .
One sentence summary
COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.
Article activity feed
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Michel Boufadel
Review 2: "Factors Driving Extensive Spatial and Temporal Fluctuations in COVID-19 Fatality Rates in Brazilian Hospitals"
This study focuses on the rising fatality rate of COVID-19 Gamma variant in Brazilian hospitals. The data reveals that the increasing fatalities are explained by changes in healthcare pressures rather than the Gamma variant itself.
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Francisco Benita
Review 1: "Factors Driving Extensive Spatial and Temporal Fluctuations in COVID-19 Fatality Rates in Brazilian Hospitals"
This study focuses on the rising fatality rate of COVID-19 Gamma variant in Brazilian hospitals. The data reveals that the increasing fatalities are explained by changes in healthcare pressures rather than the Gamma variant itself.
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Francisco Benita, Michel Boufadel
Reviews: "Factors Driving Extensive Spatial and Temporal Fluctuations in COVID-19 Fatality Rates in Brazilian Hospitals"
Reviewers: F Benita (Singapore University of Technology and Design) | 📗📗📗📗◻️ • M Boufadel (New Jersey Institute of Technology) | 📗📗📗📗◻️
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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