The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes

  1. Charles A Taylor
  2. Christopher Boulos
  3. Matthew J. Memoli

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Abstract

Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1-4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our identification strategy isolates variation in COVID-19 rates across people born before and after 1968. In places with high 1968 influenza incidence, older cohorts experience lower COVID-19 death rates relative to younger ones. The relationship holds using county and patient-level data, as well as in hospital and nursing home settings. Results do not appear to be driven by systemic or policy-related factors, instead suggesting an individual-level response to prior influenza pandemic exposure. The findings merit investigation into potential biological and immunological mechanisms that account for these differences—and their implications for future pandemic preparedness.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403v3 on medRxiv
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403v2 on medRxiv
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403v1 on medRxiv