Predicting COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy from Neutralizing Antibody Levels
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Abstract
Recent studies using data accrued from global SARS-CoV-2 vaccination efforts have demonstrated that breakthrough infections are correlated with levels of neutralizing antibodies. The decrease in neutralizing antibody titers of vaccinated individuals over time, combined with the emergence of more infectious variants of concern has resulted in waning vaccine efficacy against infection and a rise in breakthrough infections. Here we use a combination of neutralizing antibody measurements determined by a high throughput surrogate viral neutralization test (sVNT) together with published data from vaccine clinical trials and comparative plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) between SARS-CoV-2 variants to develop a model for vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic infection. Vaccine efficacy estimates using this model show good concordance with real world data from the US and Israel. Our work demonstrates that appropriately calibrated neutralizing antibody measurements determined by high throughput sVNT can be used to provide a semi-quantitative estimate of protection against infection. Given the highly variable antibody levels among the vaccinated population, this model may be of use in identification of individuals with an elevated risk of breakthrough infections.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.13.21264921: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics IRB: All subjects were consented under clinical research protocols reviewed and approved by an accredited Institutional Review Board (IRB) and implemented in accordance with the ICH Harmonized Guidelines for Good Clinical Practice (GCP), applicable regulations (including CFR Title 21) Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources The Plasma/HRP-RBD solution was then transferred to a capture plate coated with anti-RBD antibodies and incubated at 37°C for 15-minutes. anti-RBDsuggested: NoneNeutralizing antibody standards of known titers; a Positive Control containing anti-RBD … SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.13.21264921: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics IRB: All subjects were consented under clinical research protocols reviewed and approved by an accredited Institutional Review Board (IRB) and implemented in accordance with the ICH Harmonized Guidelines for Good Clinical Practice (GCP), applicable regulations (including CFR Title 21) Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources The Plasma/HRP-RBD solution was then transferred to a capture plate coated with anti-RBD antibodies and incubated at 37°C for 15-minutes. anti-RBDsuggested: NoneNeutralizing antibody standards of known titers; a Positive Control containing anti-RBD neutralizing antibodies; and a Negative control were included in duplicate in every run. anti-RBD neutralizing antibodiessuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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