Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 infected persons during repeated waves in Japan

  1. Koichi Hashiguchi

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Abstract

A model for estimating the number of COVID-19 infected persons (infecteds) is proposed based on the exponential function law of the SIR model. This model is composed of several equations expressing the number of infecteds, considering the onset after an incubation period, infectivity, wavy infection persistence with repeated infection spread and convergence with insufficient quarantine. This model is applied to the infection in Japan, which is currently suffering from the 5th wave, and the initial number of infecteds and various related parameters are calculated by curve fitting of the cumulative number of infecteds to the total cases in the database. As a minimum boundary of the number of infecteds for the infection continuation up to the 5th wave, the initial number of infecteds at the outbreak of infection is more than an order of magnitude higher than the actual initial cases. A convergence ratio (cumulative number of infecteds / total cases) at the end of the first wave is obtained as 1.5. The quarantine rate and social distancing ratio based on the SIQR model are evaluated, and the social distancing ratio increases sharply just after the government’s declaration of emergency. The quarantine rate closely equals the positive rate by PCR tests, meaning that the number of infecteds, which had been unknown, is on the order of almost the same as the number of tests.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.11.21264869: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.11.21264869 on medRxiv